- Model assumptions out of step with regulators, researchers and market, assuming a future with low demand and unrealistic timelines
- Slow expensive nuclear fantasy will be paid in power bills and taxes for decades
- Dutton’s policy chaos threatens fast, low-cost battery and renewable projects creating jobs today
Friday 13 December 2024 – Peter Dutton’s twice-delayed energy modelling relies on unsupported assumptions to reach a different conclusion to energy regulators, market consensus and the CSIRO, which have all found nuclear is slow, expensive and uncertain.
The Dutton modelling uses a better case scenario for his own policy and a worse case scenario to model his opponent’s policy, rather than comparing them under like circumstances.
It forecasts cutting future energy supply, potentially stranding homes and industries dependent on dependent on power. This would mean Australia escapes widespread global vehicle electrification, does not develop energy intensive industrial activity like mineral refining and does not significantly expand energy use because of data centres, AI or household electrification between now and 2050.
It assumes that Peter Dutton can deliver large and small nuclear reactors (the latter a technology with zero successful commercial instances in the world) in timelines a full 50 percent shorter than that assessed as the minimum by the CSIRO.
These assumptions support conclusions that are vastly more favourable to Mr Dutton’s, including on price, because of the lower level of electricity production modelled – it costs less money to make less of something.
The modelling contradicts the CSIRO, every energy regulator, the consensus among investors and most all serious economic modelling on the topic, furthering the policy chaos that threatens to derail Australia’s energy transition.
The recent he Capacity Investment Scheme tender announcement this week shows that we are getting on and building the generation which need. 84 bids worth 27GW were submitted, and 19 worth 6.4GW were successful. These projects combined will add generation capacity to power 3 million households on the National Electricity Market.
The CSIRO’s Gencost report consultation draft released this week found nuclear is more than 15 years away even with the most generous timeline assumptions, and any energy it produces will cost more than double power produced by large-scale solar PV.
ETU National Secretary Michael Wright said Mr Dutton’s much-delayed document made unrealistically favourable assumptions for his preferred policy.
“The members of this union are building Australia’s energy transition today with the lowest cost generation and transmission infrastructure plus battery storage for reliability.
“And this is happening today, – it is no assumption, we are living it. Tens of thousands of additional jobs for young electricians are being created every year under the low-cost, generation and battery fast track.
“Peter Dutton’s slow expensive proposal kills jobs and sows chaos. All to generate less energy than we need, much later than we need it, for more money than anyone would pay.
“Today’s events are like being back in the vaccine rollout where the Liberal leader, months behind schedule, unveils a consultant’s slide deck produced in an alternate reality, and readsan A4 sheet of dot points announcing they have solved the problem.
“We didn’t buy it then either. Taxpayers, power users energy workers deserve real answers rather than the buried, delayed half-baked effort we have seen today.”